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ÎÞÐèµ£ÐĸöÈËͶ×ÊÕß¹ºÂòÎÞµ£±£¹«Ë¾Õ®µÄ·çÏÕ¡£ ¹ÉÊС¢»ù½ðÊг¡Âò·½ÐéÈٵĹÛÄîÒѾÉîÈëÈËÐÄ¡£ ¹ºÂòÒøÐдúÏú»ù½ðµÄͶ×ÊÕߺÜÉÙÔÚ·¢ÉúËðʧºóÏòÒøÐÐÑ°ÇóÅâ³¥¡£ ÒøÐÐÒÔÊг¡»¯ÀûÂʳöÊÛÆóҵծȯµÈͶ×ʹ¤¾ß£¬·çÏÕÒ²ÊÇÂò·½×Ôµ£·çÏÕ¡£ About when the proportion of active liabilities in the source of bank funds and the proportion of market-oriented financial instrument investment in household financial assets both increase to 50%, both depositors and banks have adapted to the market-oriented interest rate environment. The established sequence of "small-amount and short-term" gradually liberalized the upper limit control of deposit interest rates, and the marketization of deposit interest rates is a matter of course. The economic reform has progressed to this day, the interest structure has solidified, and the public opinion environment is mixed. It is very difficult to introduce any in-depth reform measures. It is unrealistic and unfair to expect policy makers to break through and try and make mistakes. In 2003, the state creatively used foreign exchange reserves to supplement the capital of state-owned banks, and at the same time write off the capital of the Ministry of Finance, ushering in a golden decade for the development of my country's banking industry. With today's interest environment and public opinion environment, this measure is difficult to implement. Find another way, develop the periphery, cultivate alternatives, fight without declaring, eliminate the existing interests of the reform targets in the competition, and finally reach a consensus on reform among all parties in the calm. Many "top-level design" reforms in the economic field should be promoted in this way. Of course, the gradual liberalization of deposit interest rate ceiling management is unfair to small depositors. According to the current policy, the minimum sales amount of bank wealth management products is RMB 50,000. It means that small-amount depositors cannot obtain market returns by purchasing wealth management products and large-amount CDs and other implicit deposit rate marketization channels. As compensation, banks should waive account servicing fees for small depositors. The savings preservation subsidy in the mid-1990s was a good way, which not only avoided the damage to enterprises caused by interest rate hikes, but also saved depositors from the pain of negative interest rates. At the end of 2010, in the equity structure of the entire banking industry, state shares accounted for 53.85%, and state-owned legal person shares accounted for 6.81%. There is still a reasonable basis for fiscal subsidies based on equity ratios or tax cuts. Otherwise, excess funds will be lost outside the banking system, or even flow to high-interest private financing, which will damage financial stability. Maintain benchmark interest rates for RMB deposits and loans of government-designated financial institutions Another topic of interest rate liberalization is whether to abolish the central bank's direct determination of RMB deposit and lending benchmark interest rates for financial institutions. Complete interest rate marketization, the benchmark deposit and loan interest rates of financial institutions should not be formulated by the central bank. In 2003, the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Several Issues Concerning Improving the Socialist Market Economic System" clearly pointed out that "steadily promote the marketization of interest rates, establish and improve an interest rate formation mechanism determined by market supply and demand, and the central bank guides market interest rates through the use of monetary policy tools." The central bank can only decide its own interest rates, such as the open market repurchase rate and the rediscount rate, so as to affect the deposit and lending rates of commercial banks. Statutory reserve interest rate, excess reserve interest rate, rediscount rate, and lending interest rate to financial institutions are the interest rates determined by my country's central bank. They are regarded as "central bank benchmark interest rates" in the current central bank statistics, but these benchmark interest rates cannot effectively affect bank deposits. Lending rates. The statutory reserve interest rate is the risk-free rate of return of commercial banks in my country. It is suppressed and has a punitive nature. Its main function is to directly regulate the amount of bank loanable funds and has little impact on market interest rates. Since 1997, my country's banking industry basically does not need to borrow from the central bank, and seldom goes to the central bank for rediscounting. my country has spent a long time cultivating financial market interest rates. Originally, it was hoped that the central bank interest rate would affect the financial market interest rate, and the financial market interest rate would then affect bank deposit and loan interest rates. The "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" for the Development and Reform of the Financial Industry (February 2008) determined that "the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) and the yield of treasury bonds will be gradually cultivated as the benchmark interest rates of my country's short-term and medium- and long-term financial markets, Dredge the interest rate transmission channels in the money market, bond market, and credit market, and build a complete financial market yield curve." This is the interest rate control mechanism that the central bank expects. Since my country's commercial banks mainly do not finance from the financial market, and enterprises seldom finance from the financial market, various Shibor, Chibor, central bank bill interest rates, treasury bond interest rates (yield curve) and other financial market interest rates cannot effectively affect bank deposit and loan interest rates. At the current stage when corporate financing relies on banks and bank financing relies on deposits, the transmission mechanism of the central bank's own interest rates and carefully cultivated financial market interest rates to bank deposit and loan interest rates is interrupted. In a sense, depositors are the bread and butter of my country's commercial banks. The presence or absence of the central bank or the presence of the market is not a matter of life and death. At present, the benchmark interest rate for RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions determined by the central bank is actually my country's benchmark interest rate. Not only banks' deposit and loan interest rates for non-financial enterprises float based on this benchmark, but also various market-oriented direct financing forms such as treasury bonds, corporate bonds, entrusted loans, wealth management, and private financing are all priced with reference to the benchmark deposit and loan interest rates. The central bank's adjustment of the RMB deposit and loan benchmark interest rates of financial institutions has quickly and effectively affected the indirect financing and direct financing interest rates of the whole society. Various financing entities such as banks and enterprises need the "anchor" of the benchmark deposit and loan interest rates formulated by the central bank. At the same time, my country's large-scale infrastructure construction continues and the manufacturing-based industrial structure requires low-cost financing. At this stage, the government, enterprises and other net debtors all hope that the interest rate will be lower, and maintaining the right of the central bank to set the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans can guide the market interest rate to a certain extent. To sum up, the interest rate control mechanism, the anchor of pricing and the orientation of low interest rate policy determine that the RMB deposit and loan benchmark interest rate of government-designated financial institutions cannot be canceled for a relatively long period of time and must be maintained. The marketization of RMB deposit interest rate is not the last link of my country's interest rate marketization reform, but the abolition of the central bank's direct determination of the RMB deposit and loan benchmark interest rate of financial institutions. This is back to the original point, increasing the proportion of market-based financing other than RMB loan financing of banks, and increasing the proportion of active liabilities in the bank's funding sources are also the decisive basis for this reform. Don't deviate from the silent road due to the difficulty of financing for small and medium-sized enterprises Financing difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises has become a hotly discussed issue in the society. Promoting interest rate liberalization as soon as possible is considered one of the main countermeasures. As early as the 1950s, Huang Da and other senior financial masters in my country pointed out that "material balance is the foundation, financial balance is the key, and credit balance is a comprehensive reflection" when discussing the "four balances" theory. Cost factors such as taxes, energy, raw materials, labor, and housing have risen significantly, and the internal quality of management and technology is not high. As a result, some small and medium-sized enterprises have increasingly meager profits. It seems that with new financing, everything is getting better for SMEs. Even with new financing, internal and external conditions are unlikely to change, and financing difficulties will reappear after a period of time. For example, the media often mentions that the Wenzhou lighter industry is in trouble due to financing difficulties. The actual reason is that the price of gasoline, plastics, and aluminum has doubled, but the price of lighters has not risen. What's more deadly is that after the implementation of strict airport security measures, consumers all over the world have given up fancy and expensive lighters. At present, the international environment and domestic resource carrying capacity can no longer support the rapid growth of China's economy. The central government hopes that the economy will slow down, and set a GDP growth rate of 7% at the beginning of the year. However, the mentality of entrepreneurs and others has not changed, and investment and production capacity have not been reduced. The absolute value of new loans decreased year-on-year. Rising prices of raw materials at home and abroad and other costs have consumed more of the company's already stretched monetary funds. The overall tension in social funds has occurred. Of course, with the development of direct financing tools and the marketization of loan interest rates, large enterprises will dominate financing prices and reduce financing by banks, which will force banks to do more financing for SMEs. In the past two years, bank loans to small and medium-sized enterprises have increased significantly, which is the result of the squeeze. However, the marketization of loan interest rates has been basically realized. Today's interest rate liberalization is mainly the marketization of RMB deposit interest rates, and has nothing to do with solving the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises. The general call to speed up the liberalization of interest rates is actually calling for the liberalization of the upper limit of deposit interest rates. This will only cause banks to ask SMEs to share more of the burden of high-interest deposits, making SMEs more difficult. Therefore, don't change the silent mode of interest rate liberalization in our country just because you are eager to alleviate the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises. Finalized on September 27, 2011 |
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